An important finding from our analyses is a consistent pattern of increasing estimated HIV incidence in men and women with heterosexual exposure (Fig. 1c and d, respectively), despite relatively inconclusive trends in HIV diagnoses (Fig. 2c and d, respectively). As far as can be ascertained using national surveillance data, the majority Venetoclax mw of reported diagnoses are either in people from a high HIV prevalence country, or in people with a partner from a high HIV prevalence country. However, a relatively large proportion of HIV infections among heterosexuals are estimated to be undiagnosed. Although these estimates are still much lower than those in other developed countries, combined

with increases in reported sexually transmissible learn more infections in the general population [5], these increases in estimated HIV incidence are a real concern. This raises the possibility of an accelerating heterosexually transmitted HIV epidemic in Australia, which has to date largely been avoided. This study is the first to use a modified back-projection method to reconstruct the HIV infection curves for selected populations by linking three data sources in the Australian surveillance database. Previously we investigated the Australian HIV epidemic through the development and analysis of a mathematical transmission model [10] which uses a mechanistic framework

to combine epidemiological, behavioural, biological and clinical data, and assess how factors interact and together contribute to the HIV incidence in Australian MSM. One advantage of the back-projection analyses used in this study is that they provide a completely independent

statistical method for estimating HIV incidence, the results of which can be compared with those obtained using mathematical transmission models. Both the statistical back-projection models and the epidemic mathematical models are based on a number of uncertain, but different, assumptions. The extent to which these very different approaches agree provides some corroboration of the results. The back-projection analyses PJ34 HCl do have limitations, chiefly in the assumptions required to generate a rate of progression from HIV infection to diagnosis. Although this rate of progression was allowed to vary over time, this was assumed to be in a fairly strictly increasing manner. This assumption is consistent with testing data for MSM in Australia, where the proportion tested each year has increased over time; in the absence of similar data for heterosexuals, this assumption is not unreasonable. Furthermore, although the relationship among newly acquired HIV infection, HIV diagnosis and AIDS diagnosis (until 1987) is to some extent exploited in generating the progression rate distribution, it is not possible for external information, for example rates of HIV testing, to be built into the models using the current formulation.